Temporary Calm in Iran Conflict Masks Broader Middle East War Risk

Iran has halted retaliatory attacks against US allies in the Middle East as Washington refrained from striking Iranian targets for a second consecutive night. The lull comes as Tehran suggested that Houthi rebels in Yemen might step up operations against Red Sea shipping. This pause coincides with a key meeting scheduled in Washington on July 28 between President Donald Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu. The visit falls exactly five months after US and Israeli forces launched a wide campaign of air strikes on Iranian targets.

Iran has pushed back against the strikes, targeting US allies in the region and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway through which a massive amount of oil and gas passes to global markets. While Washington declared a partial cease-fire in recent weeks, prior to July 24, there were nearly two weeks of consecutive US bombardments of Iranian targets. The recent lull in attacks is partially attributed to a decision to allow behind-the-scenes peace talks to proceed. Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, told NBC News that Trump is keeping all options on the table and giving the discussions some space.

However, the pause is also driven by practical military constraints. According to The New York Times, dwindling US stockpiles of interceptors have worried military planners. CNN reported that Vice President JD Vance and General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, raised concerns about escalation during a White House meeting. Waltz acknowledged that some weapons were depleted, partly due to supplies sent to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. He also placed blame on the administration of Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, stating that the Pentagon “inherited a depleted situation” from both the Ukraine war and the ongoing fight with the Houthis.

Tehran has signaled that its strategy remains essentially retaliatory. Mohammad Akraminia, an army spokesman, told Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency that the US had stopped its attacks two nights ago, prompting Iran to halt its own operations. Speaking at the White House on July 26, Trump said he had not decided whether to return to an all-out operation, noting that Iran faced a choice between a deal and strikes at a “much higher level.”

The situation remains volatile on the ground. Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed they had downed a drone launched by US-allied Saudi Arabia, the latest in a series of small-scale confrontations. In recent days, the group also claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities.