Indian markets open lower ahead of key levels

Indian stock markets will open cautiously on Thursday as traders prepare for volatility ahead of the Sensex monthly expiry and mixed global signals.

GIFT Nifty, an early indicator for domestic equities, traded 68.10 points lower at 24,461 on the NSE International Exchange. This decline followed a choppy session in global markets, where Asian indices showed uneven performance. South Korea’s KOSPI rose nearly 2%, while Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng moved lower.

Global factors and domestic sentiment

Wall Street ended slightly lower on Wednesday after U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, increasing pressure before Nvidia’s earnings report. The Dow Jones fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.02%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.08%.

Domestic sentiment received some support from declining crude oil prices and foreign institutional investor activity. Brent crude dropped 0.7% to $87.20 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.21% to 99.13, its highest level since August 19. Gold rallied 0.7% to $4,624.14, while Bitcoin was up 0.8% at $79,043.18.

“Sentiment was primarily driven by easing crude prices and global bond yields, which helped improve global risk sentiment. We recommend maintaining a cautious stance on the index and focusing on relatively stronger sectors for long positions, while adhering to disciplined risk management,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

Provisional data from the NSE showed foreign institutional investors turned net sellers of Indian equities worth ₹502.63 crore on Wednesday. Domestic institutional investors turned buyers, purchasing ₹6,425.16 crore in shares on a net-net basis.

Key levels to watch

The market faced consistent selling pressure at higher levels. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, indicating further weakness, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

The market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only after the dismissal of 24,150 below this, the market could slip to 24,000-23,950. On the flip side, above 24,300, the rally could continue till 24,500-24,550. The current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

The underlying trend of Nifty remains subdued within a high-low range of 24,100-24,400. A decisive breakout only above 24,400-24,500 would confirm a valid breakout and open a more sustainable upside in the near-term. Any slide below the support of 24,100-24,000 may trigger fresh weakness, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities.

The Sensex witnessed profit booking throughout the session, making an intraday low of 77,472.94, which was also the closing level. The index is trading below the 200-Day EMA, while RSI stands at 48.40, indicating subdued momentum.

The India VIX outlook was not detailed in the source.

With the monthly expiry prompting positioning adjustments, traders will focus more on domestic cues than global trends. Later in the day, U.S. Q2 GDP data and inflation numbers could influence sentiment if they deviate from expectations.

For now, the market remains in a tight range, waiting for a clear catalyst to break free.