Burnham’s funding battle in epic transport plan

Andy Burnham’s time in office is unfolding like a modern political epic, where fiscal limits and tax reform present constant challenges.

The scale of Burnham’s task

Christopher Nolan’s upcoming adaptation of The Odyssey retells the story of Odysseus’ long struggle to return home after the Trojan War. The comparison to Burnham’s situation is striking. Both face difficult decisions where every option carries significant risks.

Burnham’s first major test comes on October 28, when he presents his first Budget. Unlike Odysseus, he won’t have years to address economic policy. The average prime minister’s tenure over the past decade has lasted about two years, leaving little margin for mistakes.

His plans carry a high price. A proposed National Care Service could require £18 billion each year. Defense spending may need to increase to 3% of GDP by 2030, adding another £13 billion over four years. Meanwhile, economic growth remains slow, and businesses are already absorbing the higher employer National Insurance bill imposed by Rachel Reeves.

Political evasion and its limits

Odysseus’ meeting with Polyphemus, the one-eyed giant, serves as a warning. When asked his name, Odysseus answers, “Nobody.” Later, after blinding the creature, Polyphemus shouts that “Nobody” is attacking him, causing other giants to ignore his cries. The trick succeeds briefly, but Odysseus’ eventual boast of his real name angers Poseidon, making his journey far harder than necessary.

The message for Burnham is direct: clever avoidance may buy time, but it doesn’t resolve the core issue. His government has excluded increases to income tax, National Insurance, or VAT—three of the most direct ways to raise revenue. That leaves him searching for alternatives that don’t technically break his manifesto, even if they resemble taxes in practice.

A social-care levy could be one solution. Presented as a separate charge rather than a tax, it might avoid violating his promises. But voters may not see the difference. If it functions like a tax and funds the same services, the political consequences could be just as severe.

Burnham’s problem isn’t just about finding money. He must decide which risks he’s prepared to take. Raising taxes too sharply could discourage investment and growth. Cutting spending might undermine his key policies. Borrowing more could provoke a reaction from bond markets, threatening his economic credibility.

The appeal of capital gains tax changes

Odysseus’ encounter with the Sirens—creatures whose songs lured sailors to their doom—reflects the temptation to align capital gains tax with income tax. On paper, it seems fair: why should investment returns be taxed at a lower rate than wages? The political appeal is clear. Equalizing the rates could be framed as simplification, with revenue expected to follow.

The reality is more complicated. Doubling capital gains tax might signal that Britain is unfriendly to investment. Investors could delay sales, move assets into tax-efficient structures, or hold onto them longer. Taxpayers don’t always respond predictably, and governments often overestimate revenue from such changes. The risks are real, even if the idea sounds appealing.

The risks of fiscal strategies

The Trojan Horse, the most famous trick in The Odyssey, concealed a devastating attack. Burnham might consider a similar approach. A social-care levy, designed to avoid the word “tax,” could serve as his version of the wooden horse. Whether voters see through it remains uncertain.

Critics would likely accuse him of disguising a tax increase. Demands for a new electoral mandate could follow. Given Burnham’s current polling, that might not worry him. But the risk remains: once the policy is in place, there’s no turning back.

The lesson from Odysseus is that no easy choices exist. His journey home took a decade, cost him his crew, and forced him to confront countless dangers. Burnham’s path is shorter, but the stakes are just as high. He must fund social care, increase defense spending, encourage growth, and keep his tax promises while working within tight fiscal constraints.

Nolan’s film reportedly cost over £200 million. That figure is small compared to the sums Burnham needs to deliver his agenda. UK firms now face additional pressures as protections weaken, adding another layer to his challenges.